This report, the flagship 2025 publication of EMC’s Utilities Working Group, aims to enhance stakeholder understanding of utility planning for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) electrification across Canada. This report is prepared by EMC’s Utilities Working Group as its primary publication for 2025 to increase the familiarity by stakeholders for utility planning of MHDV electrification across Canada. It provides an initial national assessment of MHDV adoption over the next one and a half decades by vehicle class and use case, and the resulting grid load, based on evidence from previous research and available data.

The purpose of this report is to initiate dialogue, establish a foundational model that can be refined as more granular data becomes available, and emphasize the importance of coordination between governments, utilities, and industry stakeholders to plan future grid upgrades and energy management strategies. These findings serve as a conversation starter, and the framework will be refined in future iterations with more stakeholder input, more granular data, and additional regional analysis.

Key Takeaways

1. More data is required

Data on vehicle charging patterns, energy demand, adoption rates, fleet geographical locations, regional variations, etc., are needed to support improved utility planning.

New federal and provincial policy decisions in 2025 and beyond could shift the timing and types of vehicles that electrify in the near and medium term.

2. Use Case-Based Planning Is Essential

Electricity demand is more influenced by vehicle vocation (how it’s used) than by its class.

Utilities should prioritize based on operational patterns, e.g., long-distance freight vs. local delivery, and vehicle type, as energy demand is driven by both daily distance and per-kilometre consumption, particularly for long-haul Class 8 vehicles.

3. Local Fleets Dominate Numerically but Not in Energy Demand

Local fleets are the most common use case across truck classes, but regional and long-distance vocations drive higher energy demand and peak load risks.

This implies that grid stress may be concentrated in fewer locations with high demand vocations, not necessarily where the greatest numbers of vehicles are.

4. Peak Load Management Will Be Critical

The difference between typical and maximum annual energy demand is substantial, especially for long distance and regional vocations.

Utilities must prepare for worst case charging scenarios, not just average demand, and consider smart charging, load balancing, and storage solutions, and rate structures that encourage off-peak charging.

5. Electrification of Buses Is Low-Risk and High-Impact

School and transit buses have predictable, centralized charging patterns, making them ideal for early electrification.

Their grid impact is modest at the aggregate level compared with other vehicle classes but can be substantial at single points of charging requiring 5-15 MW.

As early adopters of electrification, they can serve as a testbed for utility coordination and rate design.

6. Scenario Similarity Suggests Stable Behavioural Assumptions

Despite differences in ZEV adoption rates across scenarios (Pembina, CEC, conservative), the distribution of electricity demand by vocation remains consistent.

This stability supports the use of vocational modelling as a reliable planning tool, even under policy uncertainty.

7. Inter-agency Coordination Is Critical

Effective planning will require coordination between transportation agencies, energy regulators, and local governments to align fleet transition goals with grid capacity and investment timelines.